May 24, 2001

SUBJECT: U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics

Dear Colleague,

The Executive Board of the U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics is pleased to announce that the Los Alamos National Laboratory will host its seventh annual conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico on October 24-26, 2001.

The U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics is a forum for the presentation of theoretical and applied papers relating to the use of probability and statistics in solving Army problems. Today's Army faces far-ranging challenges that encompass many topics in which probability and statistics can contribute. The development and advancement of Army systems draw upon many techniques, such as data mining, simulation, image analysis, linear and nonlinear modeling, data fusion, survival analysis, and experimental design. It is the Board's intent that conference attendees include scientists ranging from statisticians with research interests to practitioners in other disciplines involved in the collection and interpretation of data.

A short course entitled "Applied Logistic Regression," taught by David W. Hosmer of the University of Massachusetts, will precede the conference on October 22 & 23. Used primarily for modeling the relationship between a binomial response and a set of covariates, logistic regression has advanced dramatically over the last three decades and has become the standard method of analysis in many fields, especially the health sciences. These developments are discussed in Professor Hosmer's classic text Applied Logistic Regression, co-authored by Stanley Lemeshow and released in its second edition just last year. The course will be based upon selected material from the textbook and will cover the fundamentals of logistic regression modeling and analysis for dichotomous, polytomous, and ordinal scaled outcomes. Topics to be covered will include model formulation, parameter estimation, estimation and interpretation of odds-ratios and probabilities, model building strategies, assessment of goodness-of-fit, and presentation and interpretation of results.

The conference program will consist of invited talks by prominent investigators in various branches of statistics and applied probability as well as contributed papers of a technical, applied, or clinical nature. To date, the following distinguished researchers have been confirmed for invited presentations: David W. Scott (Rice; keynote address), Leo Breiman (UC Berkeley), W. Jay Conover (Texas Tech), Bradley Efron (Stanford), William Q. Meeker (Iowa State), Adrian E. Raftery (Washington), Jürgen Symanzik (Utah State) and Bin Yu (UC Berkeley).

Three special sessions will highlight this year's conference. Information Assurance/Network Security, organized by Edward Wegman (George Mason University), will explore the increasingly important field of fraud and intrusion detection. Gene Dutoit (U.S. Army Infantry School) and Paul Deason (U.S.A. Training and Doctrine Command) will coordinate a session on Urban Warfare, focusing on the latest advances in detailed depiction of terrain and its impact on wargaming simulation. Expert Elicitation, organized by Alyson Wilson (Los Alamos National Laboratory), will discuss and demonstrate, using a case study, the elicitation of expertise and expert judgment to support decision making.

The technical sessions of the conference will also feature contributed papers by Army, academic, and industrial scientists, including investigators under contract to the Army. Contributed papers can vary in content from new research to well-posed problems in which statistical methods are applied to solve specific Army problems. Speakers are strongly encouraged to present their papers in terms of the potential or real problems that motivated the work. Results that rely on relatively recent or specialized results in the theory of statistics and probability should be explained in sufficient detail to permit an audience of statistical practitioners with broadly varying backgrounds to use the results to enhance their own problem-solving capabilities.

In the clinical sessions, a distinct element of this conference, unresolved problems in applied statistics are accepted. A panel of experts, comprised of invited speakers and other distinguished attendees, offers guidance on how to proceed. Authors of a clinical paper must provide a brief description of the problem by September 21, 2001 so that the panelists have sufficient time to prepare their recommendations. We invite you to consider this opportunity to present an interesting statistical problem to some of the country's leading applied and mathematical statisticians.

Participation from many activities is sought to ensure a mixture of science and application. A call for papers is hereby extended. Speakers will be notified regarding paper acceptance no later than September 7. It may become necessary to limit the number of papers, so a timely response is recommended. To submit a paper for consideration, please send the following information by August 17 to Barry A. Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, ATTN: AMSRL-CI-CT, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5067. (Electronic mail sent to is preferred.)

1. Title of paper and a short abstract written in standard ASCII text.

2. Name of author(s) and exact title of the organization(s).

3. Type of paper (technical or clinical).

4. Equipment needed (overhead, slide projector, etc.).

5. Telephone number of the author(s) (DSN or commercial).

6. E-mail address of the author(s).


Technical papers are nominally allowed 30 minutes, to include 5 minutes at the end for audience discussion and questions. Of the 40 minutes available for clinical papers, approximately 15 minutes are recommended for the problem statement, allowing 25 minutes for panel discussion.

The conference also marks the occasion when the Army Wilks award is presented for significant contributions to the U.S. Army in the areas of statistical research, applications, and/or consulting. This year the Board is accepting open nominations for award candidates. Letters of nomination should include the nominee's vita relevant to Army service, and should be mailed by July 13, 2001 to Jock O. Grynovicki, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, ATTN: AMSRL-HR-SE, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5425.

All conference activities will take place at the Bishop's Lodge retreat located just outside of Santa Fe. Secluded in its own private valley, this four-star hideaway is recognized by Travel & Leisure magazine as one of the nation's top retreats. Distinguished for its Spanish Colonial and Native American styles, Bishop's Lodge offers complete modern conveniences, exceptional recreational opportunities, and spectacular mountain and ranch views. A special conference rate within government per diem will be available.

The city of Santa Fe is situated at the base of the Rocky Mountains in north-central New Mexico. Settled over 400 years ago, Santa Fe offers a historic past and rich culture to explore. Its 60,000 residents give it a small-city feel, yet Santa Fe is also home to numerous museums, art galleries, shops, and boutiques. Entertainment ranges from dance to theater to music, not to mention the boundless opportunities for outdoor enthusiasts in the surrounding 1.5 million acres of National Forest and public lands.

This year's conference is sponsored by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, the TRADOC Analysis Center - WSMR, the United States Military Academy, and the Army Research Office ­ with cooperation from the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the George Mason University, the Office of Naval Research, and the Institute for Defense Analysis. A host letter providing more detailed information regarding registration fees, additional lodging, agenda, etc. will follow in August. Prior to this mailing, information concerning the conference and tutorial can be obtained via the Internet at Any additional inquiries concerning the conference may be directed to Barry A. Bodt at the address noted previously, by phone (410-278-6659), or by fax (410-278-4988).


David W. Webb
U.S. Army Research Laboratory
Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD



Executive Board of the U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics

 Barry A. Bodt, Chair
U.S. Army Research Laboratory

 J. Robert Burge
Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

David F.Cruess
Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Paul J. Deason
U.S.A. Training and Doctrine Command

Lee S. Dewald, Sr.
Florida Institute of Technology

Eugene F. Dutoit
U.S. Army Infantry School

Arthur Fries
Institute for Defense Analysis

Jock O. Grynovicki
U.S. Army Research Laboratory

COL Gary W. Krahn
U.S. Military Academy

Robert L. Launer
U.S. Army Research Office

Wendy L. Martinez
Office of Naval Research

Carl T. Russell
Joint National Test Facility

Douglas B. Tang
Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

David W. Webb
U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Edward J. Wegman
George Mason University

Alyson Wilson
Los Alamos National Laboratory


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