11th Meeting of the Army Conference on Applied Statistics

The eleventh Army Conference on Applied Statistics was hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey California and attended by approximately 80 individuals from the DoD, industry and academia. The pleasant surroundings and superb facilities at NPS contributed to an enjoyable and rewarding meeting. The conference begain with a tutorial offered by Douglas Bates from the University of Wisconsin on Mixed-effects Models using R. The tutorial featured many routines and much hands on experience with the software. Five excellant speakers anchored the general sessions. Three special sessions and a wide array of contributed papers rounded out the conference. The complete agenda follows.



A Conference of the Interface Foundation of North America

Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey

19-21 October, 2005

Hosted by the Naval Post Graduate School and TRAC-Monterey


Monday, October 17

0800 - 0830 REGISTRATION (ME Auditorium)

0830 - 1200 TUTORIAL (ME Auditorium)

Mixed-effects Models Using R
Douglas Bates, University of Wisconsin

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1600 TUTORIAL (ME Auditorium)

Tuesday, October 18

0830 - 1200 TUTORIAL (ME Auditorium)

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1600 TUTORIAL (ME Auditorium)

1830 - Social and Registration (Knuckles Historical Sports Bar, Hyatt Regency)

Wednesday, October 19

0800 - 0830 REGISTRATION (ME Auditorium)

0830 - 0900 CALL TO ORDER AND WELCOME (ME Auditorium)

Barry Bodt, Conference Chair, U.S. Army Research Laboratory


0900 - 0945 GENERAL SESSION I: Keynote Address

Chair: Robert Launer, U.S. Army Research Office

Regression Models You Can See
Wei-Yin Loh, University of Wisconsin, Madison

0945 - 1000 Break

1000 - 1200

SPECIAL SESSION I: Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Network Traffic (ME Auditorium)

Chair: Mou-Hsiung (Harry) Chang, US Army Research Office

Modeling, Analysis, and Control of Network Traffic
Mou-Hsiung (Harry) Chang, US Army Research Office

Heavy Traffic Methods in Wireless Systems: from Brownian Models Towards General Lévy Driven Models and Incorporating Time-Delays
Robert T. Buche and Jim X. Zhang, North Carolina State University

Control of Multi-Node Mobile Communications Networks with Time Varying Channels via Stability Method
Harold Kushner, Brown University

A Cross-Layer Design Approach to Opportunistic Resource Allocation in Mobile Wireless Networks
R. K. Prasanth and Joao B. D. Cabrera, Scientific Systems Company, Inc.
Cesar Santivanez and Ram Ramanathan, BBN Technologies


CONTRIBUTED SESSION I (Ingersoll Room 122)

Chair: Lee Dewald, Virginia Military Institute

Evaluating Maintenance Procedures Using Hypergeometric Sampling in Order to Reduce Resources Required for Logistics Demonstrations
John Sereno, US Army Evaluation Center

MANPRINT Assessment of an Army's Rapid Materiel Equipping Initiative for the Persistent Surveillance and Dissemination System Of Systems
Jock O. Grynovicki, US Army Research Laboratory
Steve Abdalla, MSA Incorporated
Jean S. Breitenbach, US Army Research Laboratory
Teresa A. Branscome, US Army Research Laboratory

A Stochastic Usage Model for Testing Multi-Stage Systems
Donald P. Gaver and Patrica A. Jacobs, Naval Postgraduate School
Kevin D. Glazebrook, Lancaster University
Ernest A. Seglie, Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation

Toward Measuring Aspects of Mission Performance Involving Unmanned Ground Vehicles
Barry Bodt and Rick Camden, US Army Research Laboratory

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1445


Chair: LTC Andrew Glen, United States Military Academy

Wavelet Density Estimation for Streaming Data
LCDR Kyle Caudle, U. S. Naval Academy

Disaggregating Times Series Data
Shirley Bleasdale Joubert, Tom Burr, and James C. Scovel, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Graphical Displays and Methods for Analyzing Internet Traffic Data for Potential Cyberattacks
Karen Kafadar, University of Colorado-Denver
David J. Marchette, Naval Surface Warfare Center
Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University


Chair: David Cruess, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Data Normalization and Combination in Biological Studies: Application to Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder Study
Yuanzhang Li, David Cowan, David Niebuhr, Amy Millikan, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research
Robert Yolken, Johns Hopkins University

An Event Based Parametric Model for the Evaluation of Fit Factors in Full Face Respirator Masks
David Charles Bedard, Army Evaluation Center

Principal Components Analysis of ECoG Frequency and Seizure-Induced Brain Lesion Volume
Robyn B. Lee, US Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense
Gerald P.H. Ballough, La Salle University
Margaret G. Filbert, US Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense

1445 - 1500 Break

1500 - 1545


Chair: Douglas Tang, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Reliability Reloaded
Sallie Keller-McNulty, Rice University

1545 - 1600 Break


SPECIAL SESSION II: Reliability (ME Auditorium)

Chair: Alyson Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory

X-Testing using Binary Data with Applications to Reliability Demonstration Plans
David Mease, University of California-Berkeley
Vijay Nair, University of Michigan

Systems Reliability and Experiment Planning
Alyson Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Integrating System and Component Tests for Reliability Assessment
George Lopez, Marine Corps Program Department
Todd Graves, Los Alamos National Laboratory


Chair: Bernard Harris, University of Wisconsin

Decision Theory Based Classification of High-dimensional Vectors Based on Small Samples
David Bradshaw and Marianna Pensky, University of Central Florida

Self-consistency in the Context of Bayesian Inference
Francisco J. Samaniego, University of California, Davis

A Generalized Inference Approach to Estimating Hit Probabilities on a Rectangular Target
David W. Webb, US Army Research Laboratory


1830 - 2100 WILKS AWARD BANQUET (Barbara McNitt Ballroom)

1830 - SOCIAL
1930 - DINNER

Nancy Spruill, Director, Acquisition Resources & Analysis, OSD
Capabilities Based Planning & Acquisition


Jock Grynovicki, U.S. Army Research Laboratory


Thursday, October 20

0815 - 0945 GENERAL SESSION III (ME Auditorium)

Chair: Paul Deason, Science Application International Corporation

Spatial Network Design to Detect Regional Trends in Ground Level Ozone
Zhengyuan Zhu, University of North Carolina

Putting Quantitative Risks in a Qualitative Context
Barbara Billauer, University of Maryland

0945 - 1000 Break

1000 - 1130


Chair: David Webb, US Army Research Laboratory

Deterrence Theory for Layered Defenses
Arthur Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses

Automated Metadata
Edward J. Wegman and Faleh Alshameri, George Mason University

Inspection and Other Strategies for Homeland Security
James R. Thompson, Rice University


Chair: Robyn B. Lee, US Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense

A New Look at the Regression Statistic R-squared
Donald MacKenzie,Wyle Laboratories, Inc.

Binary and Ordinal Probit Models and the Method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation Applied to Small Sample Sizes
Douglas R. Sommerville, US Army Edgewood Chemical Biological Center

Does Translation Quality Predict Document Usefulness? Results from Modeling Task-Based Performance Using Automated Machine Translation Evaluation Metrics
Calandra R. Tate, US Army Research Laboratory

1130 - 1245 Lunch

1245 - 1415

SPECIAL SESSION III: Research at NPS (ME Auditorium)

Chair: David Olwell, Naval Postgraudate School

Data Visualization with Lattice and Ggobi
Sam Buttrey, Naval Postgraduate School

Assessing the Accuracy of Overhead Scoring of Munition Impact Points
Bob Koyak and Lyn Whitaker, Naval Postgraduate School

Experimental Designs for Large Scale Military Simulation Experiments
Susan Sanchez and Paul Sanchez, Naval Postgraduate School


Chair: Robert Burge, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Application of the MARS/RSM Procedure to Determine Design Optima in Complex Structures
MAJ Scott T. Crino, US Army, University of Virginia
Donald E. Brown, University of Virginia

Statistical Analysis of Impurity Atoms in Semiconductor Crystals

Bernard Harris, University of Wisconsin-Madison
John M. Zavada, U.S. Army Research Office

On the Construction of Restricted G-Optimal Central Composite Designs
Trevor A. Craney, Sikorsky

1415 - 1430 Break

1430 - 1600


Chair: Eric Snyder, US Army Research Laboratory

Statistical Analyses of Test Data on Mine Clearing
Jacqueline K. Telford, The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

Reliability Of Self-Perceived Health Changes In Pre- And Post-Deployment Health Assessment Questionnaires
Joey Zhou, Ph.D. USA Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine

Trends in Enlisted Military Applicants and Gains, 2000 - 2004
Timothy Powers, Weiwei Han, and Yuanzhang Li, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research


Chair: Jock Grynovicki, US Army Research Laboratory

Cluster-based Inference on Distribution of Spherical Data
Harry L. Hurd, Harry L. Hurd Assoc.

Adaptation of an Alcohol Ecological Agent-Based to Homeland Security
Yasmin H. Said, George Mason University

Estimating Enemy Using Capture-Recapture
Doug H. Frank, Indiana University of Pennsylvania

1600 - 1615 Break

1615-1700 GENERAL SESSION IV (ME Auditorium)

Chair: LTC Rodney Sturdivant, United States Military Academy

Chris Raphael, Indiana University
Music Plus One

Friday, October 21

0815 - 0900 GENERAL SESSION V (ME Auditorium)

Chair: Edward Wegman, George Mason University

Reliability and Survival in Financial Risk
Nozer Singpurwalla, George Washington University

0900 - 0915 Break

0915 - 1015


Chair: Arthur Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses

A Nonparametric Reliability Growth Projection Based on Stein Estimation
J. Brian Hall and Paul M. Ellner, US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity

Reliability Sampling Methodology Using Simulation and Re-Sampling
John Nierwinski, Jr., US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity


Chair: James R. Thompson, Rice University

Replacing Variance for Assessing Portfolio Risk
MAJ Ernest Y. Wong, United States Military Academy

Evolving Structure in Multivariate Time Series with Application to Financial Systems
Katherine B. Ensor, Rice University

1015 - 1030 Break

1030 - 1100 OPEN MEETING of the ACAS EXECUTIVE BOARD (ME Auditorium)

Chair: Barry Bodt

1100 - ADJOURN