FINAL AGENDA

NINTH U.S. ARMY CONFERENCE ON APPLIED STATISTICS

29-31 October, 2003
Napa Valley Marriott, Napa Valley, CA

Hosted by:

University of California, Davis

Cosponsored by:

U.S. Army Research Laboratory
U.S. Army Research Office
TRADOC Analysis Center-WSMR
Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences
Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Cooperating Organizations:

Los Alamos National Laboratory
George Mason University
Office of Naval Research
Institute for Defense Analyses

The Ninth U.S. Army Conference on Applied Statistics was hosted by the University of California, Davis 29-31 October, 2003 at the Napa Valley Marriott, Napa Valley, CA. The conference was co-sponsored by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL), the U.S. Army Research Office (ARO), the United States Military Academy (USMA), the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center-White Sands Missile Range, the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR), and the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). Cooperating organizations included the Los Alamos National Laboratory, George Mason University, Office of Naval Research, and the Institute for Defense Analysis. Approximately 90 people attended. The full agenda for the 9th conference follows.

Monday, October 27

0800 - 0830 REGISTRATION (Carneros)

0830 - 1200 TUTORIAL (Carneros)

An Introduction to Generalized Linear Mixed Models
Charles McCulloch, University of California, San Francisco

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1600 TUTORIAL (Carneros)

Tuesday, October 28

0830 - 1200 TUTORIAL (Carneros)

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1600 TUTORIAL (Carneros)

1700 - Social and Registration (Hotel Lobby)

Wednesday, October 29

0800 - 0830 REGISTRATION (Carneros)

0830 - 0900 CALL TO ORDER (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Barry Bodt, Conference Chair, U.S. Army Research Laboratory
Francisco J. Samaniego, University of California, Davis

0900 - 1030 GENERAL SESSION I (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Francisco J. Samaniego, University of California, Davis

Hierarchical Models for Spatio-Temporally Correlated Public Health Data
Brad Carlin, University of Minnosota (Keynote Address)

Directional Distributions in Shape Analysis
S. Rao Jammalamadaka, University of California, Santa Barbara

1030 - 1045 Break

1045 - 1215

SPECIAL SESSION I: MICROARRAYS (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Edward Wegman, George Mason University

DNA Microarrays in Medicine: Expressing Yourself One Pixel At A Time
J. Patrick Vandersluis, HealthRx Corporation

Transformations and Background Estimation in the Statistical Analysis of Microarrays
Karan Kafadar, University of Colorado, Denver

Statistical Methods of Detecting Differential Gene Expression
David R. Bickel, Medical College of Georgia

CONTRIBUTED SESSION I (Howell Mountain)

Chair: Linda Moss, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

System Test Time Based on Lindstrom/Madden Approach for Continuous Data with Weighted Subsystems
Thomas R. Walker, U.S. Army Evaluation Center

Information Integration for Stockpile Surveillance
Alyson G. Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Application of Fisher's Combined Probability Test to the Validation of the AIM-9X Missile Model
Art Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses

1215 - 1315 Lunch (Stags Leap)

1315 - 1445

SPECIAL SESSION II: HOMELAND SECURITY (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Art Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses

Research Within the Department of Homeland Security: Key Issues and Priorities
Parney Albright, Department of Homeland Security

Data Confidentiality, Data Integration, Data Mining, Data Quality: Statistical Challenges for Counterterrorism
Alan Karr, National Institute of Statistical Science

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods in Evaluating the Efficacy of Security Procedures
Bernard Harris, University of Nebraska, Lincoln

1445 - 1500 Break

1500 - 1630

CONTRIBUTED SESSION II (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: David Cruess, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

A Taxonomy of Terrorisms
Cheryl A. Loeb, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University
James R. Thompson, Rice University

DoD's Role in Homeland Security: Experimental Opportunity and Experimental Results
Paul Deason, TRADOC Analysis Center-White Sands Missile Range

Water Supply Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies
Major John B. Willis, TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC)
LTC Thomas M. Cioppa, TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC)

CONTRIBUTED SESSION III (Howell Mountain)

Chair: Joseph Collins, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Signature-Related Results on System Reliability
Francisco J. Samaniego, University of California, Davis

Stochastic Measures of Fatigue Crack Damage
Bruce J. West, U.S. Army Research Office

Are Super Efficient Estimators Super Powerful?
Jayaram Sethuraman, Florida State University

1630 - 1645 Break

1645 - 1730 GENERAL SESSION II (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Carl Russell, CTR Analytics

Predictive Data Mining with Multiple Additive Regression Trees
Jerome Friedman, Stanford University

1830 - 2100 WILKS AWARD BANQUET (Stags Leap)

1830 - SOCIAL
1930 - BANQUET
2000 - BANQUET ADDRESS

Quantitative Sensory Evaluation of Food and Wine
Hildegarde Heymann, Professor of Sensory Science, Department of Viticulture and Enology, University of California-Davis

2030 - AWARD PRESENTATION

Robert Launer, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

 

Thursday, October 30

0830 - 0915 GENERAL SESSION III (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Douglas Tang, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Calibrated Probabilistic Weather Forecasting via Bayesian Model Averaging
Adrian Raftery, University of Washington

0915 - 0930 Break

0930 - 1030

SPECIAL SESSION III: BEYOND SOFTWARE RELIABILITY (Howell Mountain)

Organizers: Tom Zeberlein, Army Test and Evaluation Command and Alyson G. Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Current and Future Challenges for Software Reliability Assessment
William Farr, Naval Surface Warfare Center

Useful Software Reliability Modeling Practices in Industry Environments
Daniel R. Jeske, University of California at Riverside

CONTRIBUTED SESSION IV (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Donald Gaver, Naval Postgraduate School

Test and Evaluation Challenges Posed by the New DoD 5000.1 Defense Acquisition Directive
Ernest Seglie, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Operational Test & Evaluation
Donald Gaver, Naval Postgraduate School
Patricia Jacobs, Naval Postgraduate School

Note: This session features a three-part talk and encourages discussion.

1030 - 1045 Break

1045 - 1215

CONTRIBUTED SESSION V (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Robyn Lee, U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine and U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense

Significance of Clusters Based on Correlation Distance
Harry L. Hurd, Harry L. Hurd Associates and University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Building a Robust Explanatory Model from a Large Data Set
David Kim, United States Military Academy, West Point

Clustering by Local Skewering
David W. Scott, Rice University

CONTRIBUTED SESSION VI (Howell Mountain)

Chair: Jackie Telford, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory

Hereditary Portfolio Optimization With Transaction Costs and Taxes: An Infinite-Dimensional HJB Variational Inequality
Mou-Hsiung Chang, U.S. Army Research Office

Cost Estimating Relationship Regression Variance Study
Donald MacKenzie, Wyle Laboratories, Inc.

1215 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1515

CONTRIBUTED SESSION VII (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Thomas R. Walker, U.S. Army Evaluation Center

Estimation of Direct-Fire Munition Accuracy Parameters Using the EM Algorithm
David W. Webb, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Objective Force Urban Operations Agent Based Simulation Experiment
MAJ Lloyd P. Brown, USMC, and LTC Tom Cioppa, USA, U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center-Monterey

Evaluation of the Technology Readiness Level for the Autonomous Mobility of the EXperimental Unmanned Vehicle (XUV)
Barry A. Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

CONTRIBUTED SESSION VIII (Howell Mountain)

Chair: Robert Burge, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Risk Factors for Dental Caries in the Army Population
Robyn B. Lee, M.S. and MAJ Georgia dela Cruz, DMD, MPH
U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine

Parsimonious Survival Analysis Models: Studying Early Attrition in the Armed Services by Frailty and Time-Dependent Survival Analysis
Yuanzhang Li, Timothy Powers, and Margot Krauss, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

The Effect of Dosage Errors on the Performance of the Up and Down Method
Douglas R. Sommerville, U.S. Army Chemical and Biological Center

Estimating Proportions with Small Samples
Douglas H. Frank, Indiana University of Pennsylvania

1515 - 1530 Break

1530 - 1730 SPECIAL SESSION IV (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

ROBUST AND RESILIENT CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Organizers: Jagdish Chandra, George Washington University and Robert Launer, U.S. Army Research Office

Overview, Problem Description, Challenges
Jagdish Chandra, George Washington University

Risk Assessment: A Game Theoretic Approach
Vicki Bier, University of Wisconsin

Distributed Detection with Adversarial and Cooperative Sensors
Nozer Singpurwalla, George Washington University

Optimal Filtering Techniques for Intrusion Detection
Thomas Kurtz, University of Wisconsin

Optimizing Performance in Networked Systems
Steve Robinson, University of Wisconsin

Friday, October 31

0830 - 0915 GENERAL SESSION IV (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: David Kim, United States Military Academy, West Point

Generalized Inference in Mixed Linear Models
Hari Iyer, Colorado State University

0915 - 0930 Break

0930- 1100

CONTRIBUTED SESSION IX (Howell Mountain)

Chair: Alyson G. Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Test Extremes Using the Random Effect with Variance Adjusting Model: Detecting Non-normal Changes in Military Attrition
Yuanzhang Li, Timothy Powers, and Margot Krauss, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Knowledge Discovery in the Military (clinical paper)
Deborah Leishman, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Panel:
Carl Russell, CTR Analytics
David Scott, Rice University
Robert Launer, US Army Research Office

CONTRIBUTED SESSION X (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Paul J. Deason, U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center ­ WSMR

Camouflaging Data: An Information Theoretic Perspective
Sallie Keller-McNulty, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Nozer D. Singpurwalla, George Washington University

Multivariate Equivalent Tests with Lognormal Distributions
Karan Kafadar, University of Colorado, Denver

Adaptive Estimation for Inverse Problems with Noisy Operators
Nick Hengartner, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Laurent Cavalier, U. Aix-Marseille II

1100- 1115 Break

1115 - 1200 GENERAL SESSION V (Carneros & Mt. Veeder)

Chair: Barry Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Bayesian Methods for Assessing System Reliability
Mike Hamada, Los Alamos National Laboratory

1200 - ADJOURN