Program

50th Anniversary Meeting of Statistics in Defense

The historic 50th anniversary meeting of statistics in defense was hosted by the Army Research Laboratory at its Georgia Institute of Technology site, 20-22 October 2004. Fifty years ago at the suggestion of Sam Wilks, the Design of Experiments Conference in Army Research, Development and Testing (DOE) began in 1955 at the Diamond Ordnance Fuse Laboratories, now part of the Army Research Laboratory (ARL). That first of forty conferences was organized by the Office of Ordnance Research, now the Army Research Office of ARL. ACAS, DOE's successor, returned in its 10th year to the Army Research Laboratory to commemorate past contributions of statistics in the Army and to continue with its current, broader focus on defense applications. To commemorate the meeting, the conference, through the tireless efforts of Jackie Telford of JHUAPL, provided to all attendees a CD highlighting the history of DOE and ACAS.

The conference led off during 18-19 October with a tutorial, "Quantitative Graphics and Visual Analytics for Communication and Discovery", taught by Professor Dan Carr of George Mason University. The conference program included invited talks by prominent investigators in various branches of statistics and applied probability as well as contributed papers of a technical, applied, or clinical nature. Several distinguished researchers joined the conference for invited presentations: David Banks (Duke), Doug Bates (Wisconsin), Ron Brookmeyer (Johns Hopkins, keynote), Russell Lenth (Iowa), Bill Szewczyk (NSA), and Mark Vangel (Massachusetts General Hospital).

In addition to the inivted speakers, three special sessions were organized. The first of these will explored issues and methods for "Statistical Text Processing", a novel and widely-applicable research area that attempts to computationally compare two bodies of text for the purpose of identifying concepts that are common to both. This session was organized by Carey Priebe (Johns Hopkins) and Ed Wegman (George Mason). The second, entitled "Recent Advances in Engineering Statistics", was organized by Jeff Wu (Georgia Tech). Talks in this session highlighted some of the latest results by statistical researchers in the engineering sciences, and lent insight into the direction of future work. The final session "The Volume-of-Tube Formula: Perturbation, Mixture Models and Applications", introduced theory and inferential methods for fitting perturbation models, a new area of research with applications in image analysis and automatic target recognition. Catherine Loader and Ramani Pilla (Case Western Reserve) organized this session.

The agenda reflects some new pressing issues in the defense statistical community and reaffirms the continued importances of others in the community's mission to support research, development, testing, acquisition, and operations. Regarding the former, topics related to network centric warfare, homeland defense, biological threats, and health were included. Regarding the latter, talks relevant to design, simulation, modeling, and analysis were presented, frequently with direct ties to ongoing work with physical systems.

Periodically, the Army Wilks Award is given to an individual who has made a substantial contribution to statistical methodology and application impacting the practice of statistics in the Army. In 2004 the recipient of this award was David W. Scott of Rice University.

FINAL AGENDA

TENTH U.S. ARMY CONFERENCE ON APPLIED STATISTICS

20-22 October, 2004
Georgia Tech Hotel & Conference Center, Atlanta, GA

Hosted by:

U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Cosponsored by:

U.S. Army Research Laboratory
U.S. Army Research Office
TRADOC Analysis Center-WSMR
Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences
Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Cooperating Organizations:

Los Alamos National Laboratory
George Mason University
Office of Naval Research
Institute for Defense Analyses

Monday, October 18

0800 - 0830 REGISTRATION (Conference B)

0830 - 1200 TUTORIAL (Conference B)

Quantitative Graphics and Visual Analytics for Communication and Discovery
Dan Carr, George Mason University

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1600 TUTORIAL (Conference B)

Tuesday, October 19

0830 - 1200 TUTORIAL (Conference B)

1200 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1600 TUTORIAL (Conference B)

1830 - Social and Registration (Salons 1 & 2)

Wednesday, October 20

0800 - 0830 REGISTRATION (Conference B)

0830 - 0900 CALL TO ORDER (Conference B)

Barry Bodt, Conference Chair, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Welcome
James Gantt, Dir(A), Computational & Information Sciences Directorate, U.S.Army Research Laboratory

0900 - 1030 GENERAL SESSION I (Conference B)

Chair: David Cruess, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Models for Anthrax: Antibiotics and Vaccines
Ron Brookmeyer, Johns Hopkins University (Keynote Address)

The Challenges of Streaming Data
Bill Szewczyk, National Security Administration

1030 - 1045 Break

1045 - 1215

CONTRIBUTED SESSION I (Conference B)

Chair: J. Robert Burge, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

System Engineering Approach and Metrics for Evaluating Digitization for the U.S. Army Battle Command
Jock O. Grynovicki and Jean Breitenbach, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

A Bayesian Framework for Statistical, Multi-Modal Sensor Fusion
Michael J. Smith, United States Military Academy, West Point
Anuj Srivastava, Florida State University

Visual Analytics for Streaming Internet Traffic
Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University
Karen Kafadar, University of Colorado, Denver

CONTRIBUTED SESSION II (Conference D)

Chair: Arthur Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses

A Noninformative Prior Bayesian Approach to Reliability Growth Projection
Paul M. Ellner, J Brian Hall, U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity

Getting the Most Bang for the Buck: Optimal System Design Under Reliability and Economic Constraints
Francisco J. Samaniego, University of California, Davis

Parametric Estimators for False Discovery Rates
Harry L. Hurd, Harry L. Hurd Assoc and Adjunct Prof., UNC Chapel Hill

1215 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1445

SPECIAL SESSION I: Statistical Text Processing (Conference B)

Organizers: Carey Priebe, Johns Hopkins University and Ed Wegman, George Mason University

Chair: Dave Marchette, Naval Surface Warfare Center

Recursive Bipartite Spectral Clustering for Document Categorization
Jeffrey L. Solka and Avory C. Bryant, Naval Surface Warfare Center
Edward J. Wegman*, George Mason University

Iterative Denoising for Cross-Corpus Discovery
Carey Priebe, Johns Hopkins University

Iterative maximization of Mutual Information in Integrated Sensing and Processing Decision Trees for Unsupervised Classification
Damianos Karakos, Johns Hopkins University

1445 - 1500 Break

1500 - 1630

CONTRIBUTED SESSION III (Conference B)

Chair: Robyn Lee, U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine and U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Chemical Defense

STATISTICS COUNTS! - Examples of the Impact of Statistical Analyses on the Operational Test and Evaluation of Major Defense Systems
Arthur Fries, Institute for Defense Analyses

Establishing the Center for Data Analysis and Statistics (CDAS) at the United States Military Academy
LTC Rodney X. Sturdivant, United StatesMilitary Academy, West Point, NY

Fallacies and Myths in Elementary Statistics
Bernard Harris, University of Wisconsin, Madison

CLINICAL SESSION (Conference D)

Chair: Jay Convover, Texas Tech University

A Sequential Stopping Rule for Determining the Number of Replications Necessary when Several Measures of Effectiveness are of Interest
Anthony J. Quinzi and Paul Deason, TRADOC Analysis Center - WSMR

Determining A Minimal Alternatives Replication Set For Constructive Combat Simulation
Paul J. Deason, U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center WSMR, NM

A Simulation Experiment for Assessing Adaptive Tactical Behaviors of Autonomous Ground Vehicles
Barry A. Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Panel:
James R. Thompson, Rice University
Russell Lenth, University of Iowa

1630 - 1645 Break

1645 - 1730 GENERAL SESSION II (Conference B)

Chair: Carl Russell, CTR Analytics

Data Mining in Homeland Defense
David Banks, Duke University

1830 - 2100 WILKS AWARD BANQUET (Foyer 1 & 2), (Salon 1 & 2)

1830 - SOCIAL
1930 - BANQUET
2000 - BANQUET ADDRESS

Public Health Preparedness Informatics
John W. Loonsk, M.D., Associate Director for Informatics, CDC

2030 - AWARD PRESENTATION

Jock Grynovicki, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Thursday, October 21

0830 - 0915 GENERAL SESSION III (Conference B)

Chair: David Webb, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Consensus Inference in Multi-Subject fMRI: An Old Problem Meets a New Technology
Mark Vangel, Massachusetts General Hospital

0915 - 0930 Break

0930 - 1030

CONTRIBUTED SESSION IV (Conference B)

Chair: Douglas Tang, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

Extrapolating Testing for Biological Warfare Agents from the Laboratory to a Field Environment
Charlie E. Holman, Army Evaluation Center
Carl T. Russell, CTR Analytics
Chuck Jennings, EAI Corporation

Detecting Bio-Terrorist Attacks by Monitoring Non-Traditional Data Streams Using Wavelets
Galit Shmueli and Bernard L. Dillard,* University of Maryland, College Park

CONTRIBUTED SESSION V (Conference D)

Chair: Robert Launer, U.S. Army Research Office

Distributions of the Frequency of Waiting k Years for the Next Record
Jayaram Sethuraman, Florida State University

Some Things Economists Know That Just Aren't So
James R. Thompson, Rice University

1030 - 1045 Break

1045 - 1215

SPECIAL SESSION II Recent Advances in Engineering Statistics (Conference B)

Chair: C.F. Jeff Wu, Georgia Tech

Estimating Load-Sharing Properties in a Dynamic Reliability Model
Paul Kvam, Georgia Tech

Adaptive Designs for Stochastic Root-Finding
Roshan Joseph, Georgia Tech

Building Surrogate Models Based on Detailed and Approximate Simulations
C.F. Jeff Wu, Georgia Tech

1215 - 1315 Lunch

1315 - 1445

CONTRIBUTED SESSION VI (Conference B)

Chair: Lee Dewald, Virginia Military Institute

Residual Based Goodness-of-fit Statistics for Logistic Hierarchical Regression Models
LTC Rodney X. Sturdivant, United States Military Academy, West Point

Recurrent Event Modeling Using Survival Analysis Techniques, with Application to Hospitalizations of Army Recruits
Yuanzhang Li and Timothy Powers, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Modeling a Binary Response Variable Using L2E
David Kim, Manhatten College

CONTRIBUTED SESSION VII (Conference D)

Chair: Eric Snyder, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

An Evaluation of Advanced Aluminum Alloys for Armor and Structural Applications
John Chinella, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Interval Estimates for Probabilities of Penetration Using a Generalized Pivotal Quantity
David W. Webb, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Forensic Analysis: Statistical Comparison of Bullet Lead Compositions
Karen Kafadar, University of Colorado, Denver

1445 - 1500 Break

1500 - 1630 SPECIAL SESSION III (Conference B)

THE VOLUME-OF-TUBE FORMULA, PERTURBATION, MIXTURE MODELS AND APPLICATIONS

Organizers: Ramani S. Pilla and Catherine Loader, Case Western Reserve University

Chair: Catherine Loader, Case Western Reserve University

Applications of the Volume of Tubes Formula in Functional NeuroImaging
Jonathan Taylor, Stanford University

The Volume-of-Tube Formula: Applications to Perturbation and Mixture Models
Ramani S. Pilla and Catherine Loader, Case Western Reserve University

Perturbation Theory and Mixture Models: Application to Particle Physics
Cyrus Taylor, Case Western Reserve University

Friday, October 22

0830 - 0915 GENERAL SESSION IV (Conference B)

Chair: David Kim, Manhattan College

Mixed-Effects Models for Organizational Data
Douglas M. Bates, University of Wisconsin, Madison
MAJ Paul Bliese, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

0915 - 0930 Break

0930- 1100

CONTRIBUTED SESSION VIII (Conference B)

Chair: Jackie Telford, Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory

Reducing Simulation Runs for Future Combat System Key Performance Parameter Analysis
LTC Thomas M. Cioppa, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Analysis Center

A Monte Carlo Simulation of the Kriging Model
Jay D. Martin, Applied Research Laboratory, State College
Timothy W. Simpson, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park

Research Directions in Adaptive Mixtures and Model-Based Clustering
Wendy L. Martinez, Office of Naval Research
Jeffrey L. Solka, Naval Surface Warfare Center

1100- 1115 Break

1115 - 1200 GENERAL SESSION V (Conference B)

Chair: Barry Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory

Techniques for Sample Size
Russell Lenth, University of Iowa

1200 - ADJOURN