# Bayesian Reliability Errata

### Chapter 2

• p. 26. Substituting the MLE $\hat{\pi}$ into this expression and taking the negative reciprocal and square root . . . .
• Example 2.4. On p. 38, the marginal probability of observing 3 successes in 11 launches under M2 is incorrect. You can see the correct computation here, with result 0.08528986. This result should be carried through subsequent computations.

### Chapter 3

• Example 3.6. Three lines from the end of the example, 1.387 < 7.81
• Equation 3.6. The brackets in the numerator are incorrect. Using LaTeX notation, change to [m_k(\tilde{theta}) – np_k]^2.
• Exercise 3.6. Part (b), Replace: “Report how changes in the values assumed for K and alpha” with “Report how changes in the values assumed for lambda and alpha”

### Chapter 4

• Example 4.7. A note from an instructor using the text is that he was unable to replicate the values at the end of the example, "using only the SMP 1 data, the 95% credible interval for $\lambda_1$ is (0.288,10.130)." Instead, he found an interval of (0.352,4.851).

### Chapter 5

• Example 5.3. The fault tree pictured is incorrect. The following is the correct fault tree.

### Chapter 6

• Example 6.3, p. 174. At the bottom of the page, the equation should have phi/eta as the first term instead of just phi.
• p. 182. Formula on p. 182, 8 lines from the top should not have 1 – . This may also impact Example 6.5.

### Chapter 10

• Section 10.1.3. On page 346, 6th line of section 10.1.3 – “consumer desires a maximum probability” should be “consumer desires a minimum probability” 7th line (right below) – “producer desires a maximum probability” should be “producer desires a minimum probability”
• Equation 10.9, p. 349. On p. 349 in Formula 10.9, pi_0 in the probability statement should be pi_1.
• p. 350. The left hand side of the first equation on p. 350 should start as P[pi >= pi_0].