DATA, KNOWLEDGE, AND INFORMATION INTEGRATION TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING

Statistics Group
Los Alamos National Laboratory
October 16 -17

Abstract:

This course will cover structured, quantitative approaches for combining data, knowledge, and information from multiple sources and in various forms (including both quantitative and qualitative) to support decision making. Techniques from various disciplines, including state-of-the-art expert elicitation, statistical and reliability analysis, and knowledge management, will be discussed and applied to develop formal methods for information integration. Possible DoD applications will be addressed.

The short course offering is a free service offered to conference registrants. No additional fees are required beyond conference registration.

Schedule:

Day 1, October 16 (The "Data" Day)

(1) Welcome and Introduction (15 min)

(2) Course Overview, Methodology Development and Motivation (30 minutes)

(3) Problem and System Structuring, Decision Context (1.5 hours)

• Develop course example
• Defining problem objectives
• Developing decision contexts
• Major classes of representations and their strengths and weaknesses

(4) Capturing, Representing, and Quantifying Data and Expertise (2 hours)

• Sources of information and how to find them
• Information capture
• Information elicitation
• Quantifying expert judgment
• Defining communities of practice
• Obtaining structural and content knowledge from experts

(5) Creating Knowledge Systems (2 hours)

• Types of knowledge systems
• Organizing the contents of a knowledge system based on elicited structure
• Automating elicitation
• Knowledge access and protection

Day 2, October 17 (The "Now What?" Day)

(6) Information Integration Analysis Issues and Tools (4 hours)

• Sources of uncertainty
• Reliability models
• Bayesian hierarchical models
• Propagation of information "up and down" the system structure

(7) Estimation, Planning, and Decision Making (2 hours)

• Development and structure of "what-if" analyses
• Optimization: experimental design basics, experimental design "new directions," sensitivity analysis
• Problem solutions in a decision context

(8) Conclusions and Resources (30 minutes)

• Decision context revisited
• Who do I hire?
• What do I buy?
• How much does it cost?
• How long does it take?

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