Program in Brief

The program is under development. As of 21 September, we have the special session speakers, invited speakers, and most organized contributed sessions. Details of these sessions will be added to the web site by 24 September. We welcome technical papers discussing methods or applications with a potential tie to defense and security issues. More details on the conference will follow. Check http://www.armyconference.org for official updates.

• Welcome:
  
• Vice Admiral Daniel T. Oliver (Retired), President, Naval Postgraduate School
  
  
• Short Course:
  
  Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data
  Prof. Christopher K. Wikle of the University of Missouri will present a free short course for registered conference attendees, “Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data”, prior to the conference on October 22 & 23. This state-of-the-art presentation of spatio-temporal processes bridges classic ideas with modern hierarchical statistical modeling concepts.
  
  
• Invited Speakers:
  
  
  • C.F. Jeff Wu (Georgia Institute of Technology)
    Keynote: Three-Phase Optimal Design of Sensitivity Experiments
    
    
  • Ofer Harel (University of Connecticut)
    How to Complete the Incomplete: A Statistical Antidote for Incomplete Data Sets
    
    
  • Thomas E. Love (Case Western Reserve University)
    Designing Observational Studies to Avoid Being Misled
    
    
  • Ji Zhu (University of Michigan)
    Extracting Communities from Networks
    
    
• Banquet Speaker:
  
  
  • Lt. General Robert G. Gard (Retired) (Monterey Institute of International Studies)
    
    
• Special Sessions:
  
  
  • Reliability Growth
    Organizer: Arthur Fries (Institute for Defense Analyses)
    
    Angelo Christino, Robert N. Tamburello, and Michael J. Cushing (Army Evaluation Center)
    Lessons Learned during the Test and Evaluation of Reliability Growth Programs
    
    Owen S. Martin (RSA Group)
    A Dynamic Competing Risk Model and Its Implications
    
    Ananda Sen (University Michigan)
    Statistical Inference for a Parametric Model for Repairable Systems under Multiple Failure Modes
    
    
    
  • Simulation Experiments & Efficient Design
    Organizer: Tom Donnelly (SAS Federal)
    
    Peter Qian (University of Wisconsin)
    Demystifying Kriging Models with Massive Data
    
    Susan Sanchez, Thomas W. Lucas, Paul J. Sanchez, Alejandro Hernandez (Naval Postgraduate School)
    Recent Breakthroughs in Large-Scale Simulation Studies
    
    Brian Williams (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
    Sequential Importance Sampling for Rare Event Estimation with Computer Experiments
    
    
  • Design & Analysis of Observational Studies
    Organizers: Allyson Wilson (Institute for Defense Analyses)  and Yevgeniya K. Pinelis (Center for Naval Analysis)
    
    Wei Pan (Duke University)
    Propensity Score Analysis: Concepts, Issues, and Examples
    
    Michael Baiocchi (Standford University)
    Designing Observational Studies to be More Like Randomized Experiments
    
    
• Contributed Sessions
  
  
  • Stochastic Optimization & Modeling (1)
    Organizer: Janet Spoonamore (US Army Research Office)
    
    Lookahead or Lookback: A Hybrid Architecture to Approximate Dynamic Programming
    Haitao Li and Keith Womer (University of Missouri, St. Louis)
    
    Made-to-Order Production Scheduling using Bayesian Updating
    Keith Womer, J. Camm, C. Osterman, and Haitao Li (University of Missouri, St. Louis)
    
    Uncertainty Quantification using Soft Information and Exponential Epi-splines
    Johannes O. Royset, Naval Postgraduate School & Roger J-B Wets (University of California, Davis)
    
    
  • Stochastic Optimization & Modeling (2)
    Organizer: Janet Spoonamore (US Army Research Office)
    
    Threshold Boolean Reformulation of Probabilistic Constraints with Multi-Row Random Technology Matrix Miguel Lejeune (George Washington University) and Alexander Kogan (Rutgers University)
    
    An Integrated Model for Locating and Dispatching Ambulances
    Laura A. McLay and Sardar Ansari (Virginia Commonwealth University)
    
    Characterizing Probability Distributions Using Econometric Concentrations
    Nozer D. Singpurwalla  (George Washington University)
    
    
  • Mathematical Modeling of Neural Processes in Decision Making
    Organizer: Janet Spoonamore (US Army Research Office)
    
    Divisive Normalization in Neural Circuits Drives Context-Dependent Choice
    Kenway Louie and Paul W. Glimcher (New York University)
    
    The Role of Incentive Schemes in Probability Assessment under Uncertainty
    Adam S. Goodie (University of Georgia)
    
    Neurally-Informed Graph-Based Transductive Models for Rapid Decision Making
    Paul Sajda (Columbia University)
    
    Modeling Real and Artificial Neurons for Robot Control
    Holly Yanco and Abraham Shultz (University of Massachusetts)
    
    
• Contributed Speakers: 
  
  
• Achieving the First Reliability Benchmark of a Reliability Program Plan
  Nathan Herbert (US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity)
  
  
• Detection of Changes in Resilience and Level of Coordination in Terrorist Groups
  Vasanthan Raghavan, Aram Galstyan and Alexander G. Tartakovsky (University of Southern California)
  
  
• A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Land Warfare Systems
  Lee S. Dewald (Virginia Military Institute), Robert Holcomb (Institute for Defense Analyses), Sam Parry (Consultant, Institute for Defense Analyses), Alyson G. Wilson (IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute)
  
  
• Confidence Intervals for Binary Responses - R50 & the Logistic Model
  Arnon Hurwitz (Edwards Air Force Base)
  
  
• DaViTo: An Open-Source Mapping, Graphics, and Analysis Tool
  Sam Buttrey (Naval Postgraduate School), James Henry (US Army), Lyn R. Whitaker (Naval Postgraduate School), Arnold Buss (Naval Postgraduate School)
  
  
• Accelerated Test Methods for Reliability Prediction
  David H. Collins  (Los Alamos National Laboratory), Jason K. Freels (Air Force Institute of Technology), Aparna V. Huzurbazar (Los Alamos National Laboratory), Richard L. Warr (Air Force Institute of Technology), Brian P. Weaver (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
  
  
• Reliability Growth Projection Applicable to Multiple Units Under Test
  Paul Ellner (US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity),  Martin Wayne (US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity)
  
  
• On the“No-Internal-Zeros Conjecture" for System Signatures in Reliability
  Francisco Samaniego (University of California-Davis)
  
  
• Africa Knowledge, Data Source, and Analytic Effort Exploration
  MAJ Thomas Deveans (US Army TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC) – Monterey)
  
  
• Operational Risk Analysis: New Analysis Methods for Numerical and Non-numerical Survey Responses
  Michele Wolfe (US Army TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC))
  
  
• Measurement System Analysis and Applications to Improvements in Body Armor Testing
  Sandra Meiselwitz and Barbara J. Gillich (US Army Aberdeen Test Center)
  
  
• Speed vs. Accuracy, the Shooter’s Dilemma
  MAJ Benjamin Thirey and MAJ Christopher E. Marks (United States Military Academy)
  
  
• Continuous Updating Procedure for Flow Field Forecasting
  Kyle Caudle (South Dakota School of Mines & Technology), Michael Frey (Bucknell University)
  
  
• Statistical Models for Combining Information: Stryker Reliability Case Study
  Rebecca Dickinson (Virginia Tech University), Laura Freeman and Alyson Wilson (Institute for Defense Analyses)
  
  
• Computing POD for Structural Health Monitoring Systems
  Christine M Schubert Kabban (Air Force Institute of Technology), Mark M. Derriso (Air Force Research Laboratory), Brandon Greenwell (Air Force Institute of Technology)
  
  
• Recognition of Microcalcifications in Mammograms: Feature Extraction
  Ben Riggan & Wesley Snyder (North Carolina Statue University), Robert Basilico, Rita Freimanis, & Joseph Mammarappallil (Wake Forest School of Medicine)
  
  
• Developing Joint Model of Repeated Measure and Survival Outcome
  Jason Zhou and Harry Ji (Digital System, Inc.), Yuanzhang Li (U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command)
  
  
• Regression Trees for Censored Data with Applications to Subgroup Identification
  Wei-Yin Loh (University of Wisconsin)
  
  
• Verifying System Performance Using Designed Simulation Experiments
  Terril N Hurst, Allan T Mense, and Colin Pouchet ( Raytheon Missile Systems)
  
  
• Measuring R50 in Aircraft Radar Blip Scan Data: Lessons Learned in Increasing Analysis Rigor
  Todd Remund & Jeff Weisz (Edwards AFB, Colorado)
  
  
• Discrete Approximations of Controlled Stochastic Systems with Memory
  Mou-Hsiung (Harry) Chang (U.S. Army Research Office)
  
  
• Consensus, Control and Minority Opinion
  Bruce J. West (U.S. Army Research Office)
  
  
• Comparative Testing
  Jacob J. Warren (Marine Corps Operational Test and Evaluation Activity – MCOTEA)
  
  
• F-16 Radar Performance Analysis: Do Bayesian Hierarchical Models Provide Better Insight into System Characterization than Standard Techniques?
  James Brownlow  (Edwards Air Force Base)
  
  
• Applications of Clustered Designs
  Selden Crary (NewallStreet, Inc.)
  
  
• Geographical Trends in Cancer Mortality: Using Spatial Smoothers and Methods for Adjustment
  Karen Kafadar (Indiana University)
  
  
• DOE and Tolerance Design for Antenna Design
  William C. Thomas (Raytheon Missile Systems)
  
  
• A Robotic Trenching Capability Experiment
  Barry A. Bodt, U.S. Army Research Laboratory
   
  
• Events:
  • Social: Tuesday, October 23, Casa Munras
  • Wilks Award Banquet: Wednesday, October 24,  Casa Munras

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