US Army Conference on Applied Statistics
October 18-20, 2000
Rice University, Houston, TX
Short Course on Data, Knowledge, and Information Integration to Support Decision Making
Sallie Keller-McNulty, Alyson Wilson, Tom Bement, Shane Reese, Mary Meyer, Jane Booker, Mark McNulty, and Jerry Morzinski
- Abstract and Schedule
- Welcome, Intoduction, and Course Overview Dan Williard, Sallie Keller-McNulty
- Problem, System, and Data Representations Alyson Wilson, Tom Bement
- Uncertainty and Reliability Shane Reese
- Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Complex Series/Parallel Systems of Binomial Subsystems and Components
- Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Series Systems of Binomial Subsystems and Components
- Testing the Untestable: Reliability in the 21st Century
- Formal Elicitation of Knowledge Jane Booker
- Elicitation Exercise
- Sample Worksheet
- Pilot Test Example
- Guidelines for Eliciting Expert Judgment as Probabilities in Fuzzy Logic
- On Pilot Testing
- Elicitation and Analysis of Expert Judgment
- Formal Quantification of Knowledge Alyson Wilson
- Sources of the Effects of Interexpert Correlation: An Empirical Study
- Bibliography for Aggregation of Multiple Expert Opinion
- The Use of Fuzzy Control System Methods for Characterizing Expert Judgment Uncertainty Distributions
- Examples of Fuzzy Control System Methods in Statistics
- Fundamental Information Combination Methods Mark McNulty
- Information Integration Technology
- PREDICT: A New Approach to Product Development and Lifetime Assessment Using Information Integration Technology
- Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Information Combination Shane Reese
- Bayes Offers a "New Way" to Make Sense of Numbers, Science, November 19, 1999, Vol. 286
- Integrated Analysis of Physical and Computer Experiments
- Propagating Uncertainty Through the System Alyson Wilson
- Using Higher-Level Failure Data in Fault Tree Quantification
- Characterizing Reliability During a Product Development Program
- Introduction to Knowledge Systems Mary Meyer
- Creating Knowledge Systems Mary Meyer
- Estimation, Planning, and Decision Making Alyson Wilson, Mark McNulty
- Conclusions and Resources Sallie Keller-McNulty